Is Serbia really considering turning green?

Serbia is often at the center of mediatic attention, at least in eastern Europe, because of the complicated behaviour of its leaders. Not only, it is also one strategic place for energy investments. Six months after the biggest protest on environment and human rights that Serbia has ever experiences, where thousands of people gathered under the name of "Ekološki Ustanak", the Ecological Revolt, president Vučić must choose what direction to give to his political discourse: either going towards green transition, as requested by the general public and the EU, or strengthening bilateral relations with Russia and China.

As Serbia is still transitioning especially in the rule of law and democratization department, its prospects of entering the EU are quite far ahead, so that joining Russia and China would seem like the easier option. These two big powers have in fact much interest in operating in Serbian territory: on one hand, they try to exploit the instability of the external action of the EU, and on the other hand, they want to take advantage of the economy and political structure that are still in development, so to drag the country into thei sphere of influence. The frequent meetings between the head of the three States confirm the solid relationship among them. However, not everything is rosy for the future of Serbia: the majority of investments by China and Russia are in the field of non-renewable energy, which is quite debatable. Russian companies Gazprom, which has acquired Serbian NIS in 2008, and Lukoil govern the oil market in Serbia. Moreover, Russia has always shown interest in using Serbia as "chain" to the European market, especially thanks to the South Stream project that has now been interrupted. China, instead, invests in the construction of coal power plants; it has for instance financed the expansion of the Kostolac power plant, built in the '60s and being expanded in the near future without taking account of the environmental damage. Ex-novo construction of big industrial parks is also characteristic of Chinese investments: Serbia needs new foreign investments as it does not have a flourishing economy itself, especially to fuel the process of reindustrialization after the Yugoslavian wars.

To be sure, these companies satisfy the need of energy and investments in the territory, but at the same time they have important economic and environmental consequences. Serbia has both increased its debt to China of billions of euro in about a decade, and it is also attempting at the quality of life of its citizens who cannot escape breathing polluted air.

By a study of IQair, a Swiss company that monitors air quality worldwide, Serbia stands 28th out of the more than 100 States that were analyzed. This is the 5th most polluted area in Europe. Obviously, such as high concentration of polluting agents negatively influences people's health: it is responsible not only for a higher number of respiratory diseases, but also for premature deaths and consequences on the cognitive development of children.

In this context, Serbian citizens, especially young people, are organizing marches and actions in favour of green transition. They dream of a Serbia that is greener and more European. Besides organizing social media campaigns, they also support green parties hoping that they can gain more success at the elections like it happened in Croatia, where the green party entered for the first time the Parliament last year. The Ecological Revolt was the peak of a long series of protests during which the citizens presented a list of concrete actions to be taken by the government: respect for the Constitution and for laws, citizens participation in the shaping of environmental policy, conservation of the environment, revision and suspension of damaging projects, sustainable development, and harmonization of laws with the highest standards in matter of climate policy. They wanted things to be done starting from the most urgent problems, such as the mismanagement of hydroelectric resources, wastewater management, and water pollution from industrial waste. These are all topics that the citizens take at heart and that may impede the reelection of President Vučić if he does not work on them.

Protests and request have had some positive results, such as the elimination of certain amendments to the law on water which would have legalized the concession of territories close to sources of water without clear criteria; a public consultation on the law has also been announced. The construction of a coal power plant, Kolubara B, has been halted. At the same time, however, the Serbian president made some contrasting remarks, such as saying that "Serbia will close its coal plants only when Poland will be required to do so (by the EU, n.d.r.)", and by accusing NGOs operating in environmental protection to be financed by external agents. It is clear that he is adopting the rhetoric of those States that often challenge the normative power of the EU such as Poland and Hungary.

Vučić has therefore demonstated to follow a game of dual politics: he wants to comply with the interests of Russia and China, but he also keeps affirming that he is set on collaborating with the EU with the goal of joining the club, which however means adopting policies of sustainable development that clash with investments in coal and oil. The President is aware of his obligations, but he remains hesitant on how to balance economic growth and green transition. Moreover, he must pay attention to the demands by the people if he wants to stay in power. He does not seem to worried about it, as he has already announced new elections in 2022, but things could change quickly.